ESTIMATION OF VOLATILITY OF SHARES OF THE KAZAKHSTAN STOCK MARKET BASED ON GARCH MODELS

Because it is a crucial indicator of investment risk and can signal potential price swings, share volatility is vital. Larger volatility suggests a larger chance of both significant gains and large losses. Because investors utilise it to find trading opportunities and match their assets with their risk tolerance, it is essential for making well-informed decisions, pricing alternatives, and building portfolios. The primary purpose of the article. Forecasting and assessing the volatility of stocks in the securities market of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Research methodology. The article systematically analysed and synthesised scientific information. Analysing various methods in the research of foreign scientists, a generalised autoregressive heteroskedasticity model was used, which assumes that the current variability of the dispersion is influenced by both previous changes in indicators and prior estimates of the dispersion (GARCH model). Research features / value. This article attempts to assess the riskiness of stocks in the securities market of the Republic of Kazakhstan by reviewing existing theories and empirical studies. Research results. A comparison of the risks associated with HSBK, KZTK, and KZTO stocks reveals that an investor should focus primarily on a stock's risk. To do this, you need to identify the stock's high- and low-volatility periods, as well as the distribution of daily price fluctuations. GARCH model results indicate that KZTK stock has a higher risk than other stocks. Empirical research has shown that these financial instruments alternate between periods of high and low volatility. A financial instrument's risk will be overestimated during a period of low volatility by the first data points from an exceptionally high volatility period.

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